неделя, 15 февруари 2009 г.

ПРОГНОСТИКА / PROGNOSTICS



Янков Янко. Прогностика. Теоретико-методологически проблеми.

– С., „Янус”, 1993. – 288 с.

Iankov Ianko (Yankov Yanko). Prognostics. Theoretical and Methodological

Problems. – Sofia, Ianus Publishing Co., 1993. – 288 pp.

Yankov Yanko. Prognostic. Problèmes thèoriques et mèthodologiques. - Sofia,

Yanus”, 1993. – 288 pp.

Ianko Iankov. Prognostik. Theoretisch-methodologische Probleme. – Sofia,

Janus, 1993. – 288 S.

Съдържание

Contents 6

Предисловие 8

Глава І. Философско-методологически проблеми на прогностиката 13

§ 1. Генетически проблеми на прогностиката 14

§ 2. Предметологически проблеми на прогностиката 17

§ 3. Системологически проблеми на прогностиката 26

§ 4. Методологически проблеми на прогностиката 34

Глава ІІ. Философско-методологически проблеми в прогностиката 43

§ 1. Онтологически аспекти 44

§1.1. Причинността, развитието и закономерността 46

§1.2. Действителност и недействителност,

възможност и невъзможност,

необходимост и случайност,

вероятност и невероятност 58

§1.3. Времето като форма на съществуване на материята 70

§ 2. Гносеологически и логически аспекти 90

§2.1. Прогнозирането като познание 90

§2.2. Проблемата за истината и прогностичното познание 100

Глава ІІІ. Понятиен и терминологичен апарат на прогностиката 114

§ 1. Предвиждането 118

§ 2. Прогнозирането 124

§ 3. Хипотезата 126

§ 4. Предположението 130

§ 5. Предчувствието (предугаждането) 130

§ 6. Концепцията 131

§ 7. Проектирането 131

§ 8. Програмирането 132

§ 9. Планирането 134

Глава ІV. Научна организация и технология на прогнозирането 138

§ 1. Изграждане на системата от органи за прогнозиране 139

§ 2. Последователност на прогнозната дейност (прогнозен цикъл,

цикъл на прогнозирането 141

§ 3. Информационни проблеми на процеса на прогнозирането 147

§ 4. Принципи на прогнозирането 150

§ 5. Методи на прогнозирането 153

§5.1. Типология на методите на прогнозирането 153

§5.2. Същност на методите на прогнозирането 156

§5.2.А. Методи на екстраполирането 156

§5.2.Б. Методи на експертизата 175

§ 6. Оценка на надеждността и точността на прогнозите 207

Резюме 216

Summary 226

Приложение 234

Послеслов 286






Contents

Introduction 8

Chapter I. Philosophical and Methodological

Problems of Prognostics 13

1. Genetic problems of prognostics 14

2. Pre-methodological problems of prognostics 17

3. Systematic problems of prognostics 26

4. Methodological problems of prognostics 34

Chapter II. Philosophical and Methodological

Problems in Prognostics 43

1.Ontological aspects 44

1.1. Causation, development and regularities 46

1.2. Reality and non-reality;

possibility and non-possibility;

necessity and chance;

probability and non-probability 58

1.3. Time as a form of existence of matter 70

2.Gnostic and logical aspects 90

2.1. Prognostics as a cognition 90

2.2. The problem of truth

in prognostic cognition 104

Chapter III. Conceptual and Terminological

Apparatus of Prognostics 114

3.1. Forecasts 118

3.2. Prognostics 124

3.3. The Hypothesis 126

3.4. The Supposition 130

3.5. Anticipation (Premonition) 130

3.6. The Concepts 131

3.7. Drawing up the Project 131

3.8. The Program 132

3.9. Planning 134

Chapter IV. Research Organization

and Prognostics Techniques 138

4.1. The establishment of prognostics bodies 139

4.2. Consecutive steps of prognostics activities 141

4.3. Information problems

of the process of prognostics 147

4.4. Principles of prognostics 150

4.5. Methods of prognostics 153

4.5.1. Typology 153

4.5.2. Essentials of the methods 156

4.5.2.A. Extrapolation 156

4.5.2.B. Expert opinion 175

4.6. Assessment of reliability

and precision of forecasts 207

Summary (Bulgarian) 216

Summary (English) 226

Appendixes 234



Prognostics

(Theoretical

and methodological problems)

Summary

In his study the author discusses the position of Prognostics as a new trend in the branch of science whose problems play a decisive role as a methodology for the problems of prognostics, related to research in individual scientific fields. The book consists of four chapters.

Chapter I, Philosophical and Methodological Prob­lems of Prognostics, deals with the problems of the raise, emer­gence and appearance of prognostics as a science. The prob­lems of genetics of prognostics are examined in Section 1, where, based on concrete analysis of prognostics practice and its theoretical and methodological grounding, the author out­lines four basic historical and genetic factors for the emer­gence of prognostics as a science: a. The contemporary ten­dency of intensive differentiation and integration of sciences; b. The change of the sets of the present, in particular, the substi­tution of the so called „historical method" to the present with the so called prognostics approach", i.e. drawing on argumen­tation in the awareness of the present not through the past, but the future; c. The progressive development of the various branches of science seen above all in the specific outlining of their basic function - a prognostic functions, i.e. the intensive compiling of prognostics by the separate sciences and applica­tions of prognostics itself; d. Overcoming of a number of out­dated concepts and practices, a considerable reexamination of values, overcoming of number of objective and subjective dif­ficulties.

Pre-methodological problems of prognostics are ex­amined in Section 2 Chapter I. The subject matter of prognostics is seen as the specific teaching of the meaning of science; re­gardless that it is the basis of every science, the problems of a specific teaching have not been so far dealt with theoretically by almost any science, hence the author has dealt extensively with the basic pre-methodological subject matter including all con­temporary sciences, namely the problem of the differentiation of the object and subject of study. The correct solution of these problems determines the parameters of the subject matter of specific sciences of prognostics, and limitation of science by the remaining sciences, outlining the major problems of science and directing research namely towards these fields or else­where. The principal solution of the above subject matter raises the issue of the concrete outlining of the parameters of the subject of prognostics as a science. The author offers his solution through the answer to a more general question, namely, which science, dealing with the problems of the future is possible. Through an analysis of literature three considerations are ex­pressed related to the issue, the first is characterized by the rejection of the justification of any science, dealing with the future, which is almost entirely overcome. The second is char­acterized by the attempts to justify a universal science, dealing with the problems of the future from a theoretical and method­ological point of view, defined by the author as a futurological concept, launching the view that an emerging science is a sci­ence, producing concrete prognoses for given objects from re­ality, and at the same time as a science, studying the method­ology of prognostics itself. The third (which the author shares), is defined as a specific prognostic and typical approach, viewing the subject matter as a general theory and methodology of prognostics, as a science for the analysis of the objective basis of prognostics, i.e. a science of the theoretical and methodologi­cal problems of prognostics, carried out by the separate branches of science and by philosophy. The subject of prognostics is prognostics itself, its structure, inner logic, technology and sci­entific organization of the process itself in the working out of the forecasts, regardless of the specific features of the various sci­ence and spheres of activity of mankind. Thus formulated the subject of prognostics differs substantially from the traditional view of the subject matter of a given science - it is not a specific aspect of an object of ideal reality, representing a reflection of material reality. In other words, the third consideration is char­acterized by the concept that subject matter of prognostics is the prognostic function of all sciences, while prognostics itself is essentially a meta-science.

Section 3 of Chapter I deals with the systematic prob­lems of prognostics. Considering the subject matter of prognostics as the unity of plurality, the author puts forth the presence of the specific theoretical problems of the destructing of this subject matter - the so called systematics of prognostics as a teaching of the systematic-structural nature of the subject of study. Basic to systematics of prognostics are the concepts „system of sciences", „structure of the systems of science", with their respective definition. As prognostics remains a science in the stage of formation, its systematics are rather amorphous and are subject to development and enrichment, therefore the tasks of the systematics at the present stage is above all to outline the main elements and the key issues in their consecutive order.

Section 4 of Chapter I, the final section, deals with the methodological problems of prognostics. Here, in order to reveal the content and correlation between the concepts „methodology of prognostics", and „methods of prognostics", the author offers his solution of analogous general (philosophical) meth­odological issues, i.e. the resolution of the question of correla­tion between the concepts „methodology of sciences", and „methods of sciences". In particular, the author presents the idea, that the concepts „methodology of prognostics" and „methods of prognostics" are two separate independent (mutually interrelated) concepts, existing in their own right, with their own content and significance within the system of prognostics as a science; the methodology of prognostics is defined as a teaching of science as a specific science, the theory of methods of prognostics - methods and techniques of research and cog­nition, for the establishment of truth relating to the studied subject of prognostics. Furthermore, dealing in particular with the problems of prognostics methods, the author examines the basis of methods in human consciousness, and within the sub­ject matter of prognostics, the link of methods and subject matter of research, and the theory of the subject matter, the structural aspects and content of prognostics methods, differentiation between prognostics methods and methods of prognosis, differ­entiation between the concepts „methods of science" and sci­entific methods", and lastly the problems of classification of methods of prognostics.

In Chapter II - Philosophical and Methodological Problems the author deals within two sections with the prob­lems of philosophical concepts behind the subject matter of prognostics and theoretical and cognitive problems before prognostics and prognostic cognition. The author outlines two basic aspects of the philosophical problems in prognostics -ontological; gnostical and logical, considering the exist­ence in science as a separate branch as-well as in prognostics poses a number of philosophical problems (above all on the basis of the differentiation of philosophical problems of prognostics and the philosophical problems of prognostics), as well as taking into account that they follow the same position and structuring within a philosophical context.

Section 1 of Chapter II deals with the Ontological

aspects of the philosophical and methodological problems of prognostics. In particular three groups of problems were dis­cussed: 1. Causation, development and regularities; 2. Reality and non-reality; and 3. Time as a form of existence of matter. These specifically ontological problems of prognostics are ex­amined on the basis of a determinist approach and its signifi­cance for prognostics and prognostics of future phenomena and processes in nature, in society and in cognition. The author shows special attention to the complex problem of time as a form of existence of matter, justifying the thesis of the existence of so called gnostical time, apparently in two forms - per­ceptual and conceptual time, and what is known as ontological time, appearing specifically in the physical and social form of being of matter, and manifested as physical social ontological time.

Section 2 of Chapter II deals with the gnoceological and logical aspects of philosophical and methodological prob­lems in prognostics. Dwelling on the problem of prognostics as cognition the author, analyzing the specific features of cogni­tion of future reality the author enters into a polemic with a number of authors, who, in his view do not reveal the real content of the concept of „future reality", arguing the thesis that making prognoses is a specific feature of humanity; the author examines the significance of an in-depth cognition, not only of laws, subordinating the functioning and development of the object of prognostics, but also of social practice; it offers the answer to the question of the limits of the potential of a descrip­tion of future new qualitative states of the object or phenomena; Dwelling on the examination of the manifestation and correla­tion between objective and subjective processes of prognostic cognition, dwelling on the problems of truth in prognostic cognition, the author examines the concepts of truth and non-truth, the specifics of practice, as the criteria of truth in prognostics cognition, and the logical mechanism and course of the process of prognostics.

The problems of scope and content of the basic concepts and terms of prognostics are examined in Chapter III, a rela­tively brief chapter Conceptual and Terminological Appara­tus of Prognostics. The introductory part notes the presence of real conceptual and terminological chaos in the present day stage of the development of prognostics, which hampers com­munication and mutual understanding between specialists, lead­ing to misunderstandings, and frequently to serious mistakes, hence the need of building up a non-contradictory and logical conceptual and terminological system of science. Based on the prerequisites that the problems of outlining scope and content of the terms „concept", „category" and „term" are dealt with by the author prior to a concrete analysis of the concepts and terms of prognostics. In particular this is the context of the thesis presented namely, that a category is a concept which is part of the system of concepts of philosophy, while the conceptual sys­tem of prognostics (as well as the conceptual system of sciences as separate branches on their own) does not possess and cannot possess categories, regardless of the circumstances, that prognostics concepts have a different scope, different functions in science, or reflected various degrees of cognition. Prognostics terms are defined further on in their link with prognostics con­cepts, the term being loaded simultaneously with four func­tions, namely a definitive function, a nominative function, an expressive function and a significative one), all of them in a complex dialectical complex interrelationship, realizing the full correspondence of the concept and term. Further on the author provides the concrete parameters of the content of concepts: preview of prognostics, hypothesis, supposition, anticipation (premonition), concepts, projections, the program, and plan­ning.

Chapter IV, Research Organization and Prognostics Techniques, consists of the analysis of numerous and various issues. Section 1 of Chapter IV deals with the problems of the building up of a system of prognostics bodies (the so called RADAR system), outlining two main lines of organization of prognostic activities: a/ setting up large specialized establish­ments, involved solely with prognostics in one or several scien­tific fields; b/ the setting up of specialized units and services for prognostics within the framework of existing scientific and re­search bodies, production units, or managerial bodies or orga­nizations, where prognostics plays the part of providing basic activities of these bodies or organizations.

Section 2 of Chapter IV deals with the problem of the consistency of prognostic activities. Eight variants of the most common algorithm of action in practical prognostics are given here, where the prognostics cycle is broken into respectively 10, 9,8,6,5,4,3, and 2 phases. The abundance of opinions and the absence of unity on the problem of the number and nature of structural and relatively independent steps (or sets of steps), included in the unified process of prognostics, is examined by the author not as a shortcoming of the theory of prognostics, but rather as the factor, reflecting the great potential of prognostic theory and practice in a concrete context, depending on the specificities of the respective case of prognostics or the selection of some variant of an aggregate of prognostics, making up the prognostics cycle.

Section 3 of Chapter IV presents in brief information problems of the process of prognostics. The author sees prognostics in science as a complex set of activities where one of the key issues lies in the need for improvement of prognostics itself, in order to optimize its uses. Outlined is the fptimal type of information. The requirements for information used in prognostics are formulated as well.

Section 4 of Chapter IV examines the principles of prognostics where the problems of the relationship between principles and methods, a theoretical problem, are resolved. The author quotes other opinions as well as his independent opinion on the question of the leading principles, valid for prognostics in science.

Section 5 of Chapter IV is a detailed description of prognostics methods. In brief examined are the problems of typology of prognostics methods, with numerous illustrations, pointing out that to this day there is no general agreement on the issue of prognostics methods typology. The author provides his own general classification of methods, placing them into two groups, namely: extrapolation methods, and methods of expert opinion. The complex question of the latter is the subject of the remainder of Section 5 of Chapter IV. The question of a de­tailed and multi-aspect approach of the essentials of the meth­ods of prognostics is further examined, the latter group of meth­ods being placed in the group of extrapolation and expert opinion class. Extrapolation methods are explained by the au­thor through his definitive treatment of the subject of extrapo­lation. Three types are outlined: temporal, spatial, and modular (analogue) extrapolation; further on he deals with the general characteristic features of extrapolation methods, which he groups into two basic groups, namely, statistical-mathematical and modular-analogue; lastly he deals with the concrete features of the following 11 extrapolation methods: the method of extrapo­lation of trends, the method of harmonic weights, the method of parameters, the method of the absurd prognosis, the method of mathematical extrapolations modeling, the method of logi­cal extrapolations modeling, the method of morphological analy­sis, the method of graphical expression of functions and the method of taxonomy of problems. In the feature on expert methods, their general characteristics are examined; the author offers his own interpretation of the three main rules, formulated by Olaf Helmer on prognostics through expert methods; lastly he considers the concrete features of five expert methods: the method of commission, the method of brain attack, the method of psycho-intellectual generation of ideas, the method exer­cises of the dilettante", the Delphi method, and their modifica­tions.

Section 6 of Chapter IV examines the problems of assessment of reliability and precision of prognosis, outlining the features of the concepts of „truthfulness”, “correctness”, „veracity”, “reliability” of prognosis; provided are definitions of the concepts „precision”, “reliability” of prognosis, revealed are the criteria for precision and reliability, and the means of reli­ability improvement.